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Failed IPCC prediction

Predicted double to triple actual warming

Prediction from IPCC  :

Based on current model results, we predict:

• under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0 3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0 2°C to 0 5°C per decade), this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025 and VC before the end of the next century The rise will not be steady because of the influence of other factors.

From page 19 of  the first IPCC report: https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf


Here is the actual temperature from the most accurate data we have - NASA satellites:




Here is the above IPCC 0.3°C per decade prediction.  It is predicting about DOUBLE to TRIPLE what actually happened




Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months.  

From:  http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_January_2018_v6.jpg