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Our longest climate record, the CET, shows no reason for climate alarm.


Here is the temperature increase over its entire period, comparing the most recent peak, 2006 = 10.87 degrees, with the earlier peaks:


1666 was    9.86 degrees which means we warmed by1.01 degree since 1666

1686 was 10.15 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.72 degree since1686  

1736 was 10.33 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.54 degree since1736  

1779 was 10.41 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.46 degree since1779  

1834 was 10.51 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.36 degree since1834  

1868 was 10.4   degrees which  means we warmed by 0.47 degree since1868  

1921 was 10.51 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.36 degree since1921  

1949 was 10.64 degrees which  means we warmed by 0.23 degree since1949


Of course, with any cyclic data, the starting point is vitally important, so we measure from peaks to peaks here.

We also note that the years over 10 degrees are more frequent recently, but only 1/2 degree warmer than 281 years ago.  The fact that the warmest years have only risen slightly suggests that there is NO dangerous warming happening. The fact that there is no acceleration of the rate of warming suggests that CO2 is having NO (or negative effect) on climate.


No Rapid Warming

A look at the same data shows several rapid warmings, ALL of which were faster than recently.

1692 to 1733 was from 7.73 to 10.5   for 2.77 degree in 41 years, or 0.068 /yr

1784 to 1828 was from 7.85 to 10.32 for 2.47 degree in 44 years, or 0.056 /yr

1879 to 1921 was from 7.44 to 10.51 for 3.07 degree in 42  years, or 0.073 /yr

1963 to 2014 was from 8.52 to 10.95 for 2.43 degree in 51  years, or 0.048 /yr


Overall peak highs from 1686 to 2014 increased from 10.15 degrees to 10.95 degrees for 0.8 degrees in 328 years or 0.0024 degree warming per year.


Overall peak lows from 1694 to 1963 increased from 7.67 degrees to  8.52 degrees for 0.85 degree warming in 269 years or .0032 per year.


Note that choice of years is somewhat a matter of interpretation, so others may get slightly different results, but it is quite unlikely that the recent rate of warming is unusual.


In summary,

1. Comparing peaks to peaks, the earth has warmed 1/2 degree over 281 years.

2. Looking at rates of warming, the latest warming is slower than earlier rates.

This raises the question: Is there really anything wrong with our climate?


Data is from Central England Temperature downloaded from the British Met Office:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat


One of World’s Top Scientists Says No Rapid Warming


This is question A from a BBC interview with Phil Jones, then the head of the CRU, which as a major supplier of data to the IPCC.


A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?


An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I've assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component.


Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).


I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.


So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. (Bold added)


From:  BBC interview with Phil Jones